Long-Term Weather Outlook

What is a typical October like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for October 2022?

Long-term maps are providing an interesting outlook for October 2022. Overall, it is likely to be around average or slightly warmer than average. The warm sea will continue exerting its influence on minimum temperatures, meaning that nights will likely continue to be noticeably warmer than normal. Some maps suggest the possibility of a cooler spell around the third week of the month. This can only be confirmed at a later date. The consensus among long-term maps is stronger where precipitation is concerned. It could be a drier than average month overall. The first half of the month is likely to be very dry, with only the odd isolated shower on one or two days. In similar fashion to September, the situation may change somewhat as enter the second half of October. It’s still too early to pinpoint an exact date, but maps are pointing towards the possibility of two separate episodes of instability: a period of isolated showers around mid-month and potentially widespread rainfall towards the end of the month. Although maps are almost certain of instability around the central Mediterranean at that time, only time will tell whether or not that will affect the Maltese Islands directly or not.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR NOVEMBER 2022 -DECEMBER 2022 – JANUARY 2023 Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR NOVEMBER 2022 -DECEMBER 2022 – JANUARY 2023 Drier than Average*

* A ‘Drier than Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards below normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How autumn and winter fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical September like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for September 2022?

Long-term maps are in consensus that September 2022 is set to be a warmer than average month. The first half of the month will be significantly warmer than the norm. The situation will cool slightly as we approach mid-month, but it will likely remain warmer than average overall. Temperatures could exceed the norm by 5°C on a number of days. Nights will continue to be particularly uncomfortable as the sea surface temperature continues to hover at 29°C / 30°C. The same long-term maps are also in agreement with regards to precipitation. The first half of the month is likely to be relatively dry, with only the odd isolated shower likely to affect us. The situation may be somewhat different as we enter the second half of September, however. It’s still too early to pinpoint an exact date, but maps currently point towards the possibility of a significant rainfall event around the fourth and final weekend of the month. Although, maps are almost certain of instability around the central Mediterranean at that time, only time will tell whether or not that will affect the Maltese Islands directly or not. Where rainfall amounts are concerned, we maintain a drier than average or average outlook for September 2022.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2022 – Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2022 – Drier than Average*

* A ‘Drier than Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards below normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How autumn fares in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

According to climate data, the mean temperature in August is of 27.1°C (a 31.4°C high and a 22.7°C low). August is climatically the hottest month of the year in the Maltese Islands. Precipitation in August averages 8.6 mm in a typical year. We’re expecting August 2022 to maintain the warmer than average trend set in the early days of summer. Temperatures should be consistently above average. Nights will continue to be particularly uncomfortable. The risk of an extreme heat wave is almost negligible, however. In similar fashion to July, August 2022 could feature an episode of instability around midmonth. This could bring an episode of isolated showers to central localities. No severe rainfall events are being anticipated, however. This would continue to prove our long-term outlook for this year’s summer correct. Back in May we said that: “Summer will be characterized by long waves of sweltering heat that will be broken up by occasional brief episodes of cooler than average temperatures and breezy conditions. These would bring some respite from recurrent waves of searing heat.”

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2022 – Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2022 – Drier than Average*

* A ‘Drier than Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards below normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. September is a hit-and-miss month. October normally marks a decisive start to the wet season. How autumn fares in terms of precipitation depends on whether rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not. Just one stormy episode may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above average.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

According to climate data, the mean temperature in July is of 26.5°C (a 31.2°C high and a 21.8°C low). With close to negligible precipitation, July is typically the driest month of the year. July 2022 is expected to be another warmer than average month overall. A heat spell towards the start of the month will give way to a period of near-average temperatures in the second half of the week. This will be rather short-lived, however, with temperatures rising to above the average again halfway through the month. A heatwave is possible towards the end of the month. With the exception of the possibility of an isolated shower (mainly light rain) during the spell of near-average temperatures, July 2022 is likely to be very dry. This would continue to confirm our outlook for this year’s summer: Summer will continue to be characterized by long waves of sweltering heat that will be broken up by occasional brief episodes of cooler than average temperatures and breezy conditions. These would bring some respite from recurrent waves of searing heat.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2022 – Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2022 – Drier than Average*

* A ‘Drier than Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards below normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. It’s normal for the Maltese Islands to not receive any rainfall in the summer months. September is a hit-and-miss month. October normally marks a decisive start to the wet season. How autumn fares in terms of precipitation depends on whether rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not. Just one stormy episode may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above average.

According to climate data, the mean temperature in June is of 23.8°C (a 28.2°C high and a 19.3°C low). Total precipitation in a typical June amounts to 4.4 mm. The start of meteorological summer on 1st June was marked by the first heat spell of the season. We’re expecting June 2022 to be warmer than average, with one or two heat spells. A brief spell of instability, characterized mainly by a break from the searing heat and a fresh breeze, cannot be ruled out. This would confirm our outlook for this year’s summer: It’s likely that this summer will be characterized by long waves of sweltering heat that will be broken up by occasional brief episodes of cooler than average temperatures and breezy conditions. These would bring some respite from recurrent waves of searing heat. All in all, we’re certain that the transition to summer is at an advanced stage now! Precipitation will likely be around the norm, and therefore close to negligible.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2022 – Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2022 – Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. It’s normal for the Maltese Islands to not receive any rainfall in the summer months. September is a hit-and-miss month. Whether or not an autumn month ends up being wetter than average will depend on whether any anomalous rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not. This is because one localized stormy episode may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above average.

According to climate data, the mean temperature in May is of 19.8°C (a 23.9°C high and a 15.7°C low). Total precipitation in a typical May amounts to 10.6 mm. May is normally characterized by the continued transition to summer. The weather is typically brighter and warmer. May is the third and final month of meteorological spring. Climatically, temperatures rise substantially over the course of the month. One would expect most days to be comfortable, although some evenings could still feel relatively fresh. Whilst spells of fine weather typically become longer and more frequent, they continue to be interrupted by the odd spell of grey skies, breezy winds and isolated light rain. The chance of rain normally dips in May. Precipitation in May is often unpredictable, however. In the majority of years, May marks the start of the summer drought. On the other hand, thunderstorms are not unheard of in May. This would occur due to the upper levels of the atmosphere still being relatively unstable. Sirocco winds are also quite common, and therefore, the threat of dusty rain and airborne fine desert sand from the Sahara extends into the first half of May. Long-term weather models are indicating that, with regards to temperature, May 2022 will likely end up being around or marginally below the average. The rise in temperatures will remain gradual, with the likelihood of any significantly warm or cold spells being relatively low. The same long-term weather models are suggesting that precipitation in May will be around or marginally below the average. This outlook is to be taken only as indicative. It indicates that storm systems across the central Mediterranean will be like in a typical year. One or two stormy episodes and one or two misses, may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above or below average respectively. Whether or not it ends up being average or wetter than average depends on whether storm systems that form around us end up affecting land or not.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR JUNE-JULY-AUGUST 2022 – Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR JUNE-JULY-AUGUST 2022 – Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. As spring progresses, storm activity across the Mediterranean will naturally diminish. Whether or not a month ends up being wetter than average will depend on whether any anomalous rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not. This is because one localized stormy episode may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above average.

According to climate data, the mean temperature in April is of 16.1°C (a 19.6°C high and a 12.5°C low). Total precipitation in a typical April amounts to 23.2 mm. April is marked by weather that feels more like spring. Daytime temperatures start verging on the comfortable. Although some nights still feel chilly, the trend of gradually rising temperatures becomes more noticeable. Weather conditions are completely stable though. Whilst spells of fine weather become longer and more frequent, they are still interrupted by one or two days of strong wind and sporadic showers. April, along with March, can be a windy month in the Maltese Islands. Sirocco winds are also very common, and therefore, the threat of dusty rain and airborne fine desert sand from the Sahara extends into April too. Long-term weather models are indicating that, with regards to temperature, April 2022 may break the trend of significantly colder than average weather set in previous months. It will likely end up being around or marginally below the average. The rise in temperatures will remain gradual, with the likelihood of any significantly warm or cold spells being relatively low. The same long-term weather models are suggesting that precipitation in April is unlikely to exceed the climate norm. As we advance through spring, one would expect the weather to become naturally drier. This outlook is to be taken only as indicative. It indicates that storm systems across the central Mediterranean will be less frequent than in a typical year. One or two stormy episodes and one or two misses, may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above or below average respectively. Whether or not it ends up being average or wetter than average depends on whether storm systems that form around us end up affecting land or not.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR MAY-JUNE-JULY 2022 – Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR MAY-JUNE-JULY 2022 – Drier than Average*

* A ‘Drier than Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. As spring progresses, storm activity across the Mediterranean will naturally diminish. Whether or not a month ends up being drier or wetter than average will depend on whether any rain-producing systems that form affect land or not. This is because one or two stormy episodes may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above average. Conversely, one or two near misses may leave the Maltese Islands land area dry, pushing values to below average.

According to climate data, the mean temperature in March is of 14.0°C (a 17.3°C high and a 10.7°C low). Total precipitation in a typical March amounts to 40.7 mm. March heralds the arrival of the first spells of spring weather. Precipitation amounts start diminishing. Temperatures start rising gradually. The weather isn’t completely stable yet, but chances of fine weather on any given day are greater. Climatically, March is well-known for its windy days. Chances of a strong Gregale are higher at this time of year. Long-term weather models are indicating that, with regards to temperature, March 2022 is likely to follow the cooler than average trend maintained throughout the winter months. This could turn into more seasonal weather towards the month’s end. With regards to precipitation, the same long-term weather models are suggesting a slight improvement over last month. Although total rainfall may be more than in February, it’s unlikely that it will exceed the climate mean for this month. This outlook is to be taken only as indicative. It indicates that storm systems across the central Mediterranean will be less frequent than in a typical year. One or two stormy episodes and one or two misses, may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above or below average respectively. Whether or not it ends up being average or wetter than average depends on whether storm systems that form around us end up affecting land or not.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR APR-MAY-JUNE 2022 – Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR APR-MAY-JUNE 2022 – Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. As spring progresses, storm activity across the Mediterranean will naturally diminish. Whether or not a month ends up being drier or wetter than average will depend on whether any rain-producing systems that form affect land or not. This is because one or two stormy episodes may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above average. Conversely, one or two near misses may leave the Maltese Islands land area dry, pushing values to below average.

According to climate data, the mean temperature in February is of 12.6°C (a 15.7°C high and a 9.5°C low). Total precipitation in a typical February amounts to 61.6 mm. February often marks the start of a gradual decline in monthly rainfall, which eventually culminates in the dry summer months. Climatically, February is a continuation of the coldest part of a typical year. A typical February would be characterized by one or two cold snaps. Spells of warmer weather in between is not unusual. The bulk of the rain that falls in February is often the product of showers brought about by cold fronts traversing the central Mediterranean. Most showers at this time of year are accompanied by small hail. A few showers are known to bring abundant amounts of hail to localized areas. Some frontal systems also bring the occasional episode of continuous light to moderate rainfall with the potential of producing significant rainfall amounts. Northwesterly gales are common during February. It is also not unheard of for an episode of violent Gregale to affect the Maltese Islands at this time of year.

The majority of long-term weather models expect February 2022 to bring temperatures which are around or slightly below the norm. A warmer spell towards the end of the month cannot be completely ruled out. Although episodes of strong wind are a guarantee, these should not be more than what we normally experience. The same models expect February 2022 to be at least slightly drier than average. This outlook is to be taken only as indicative. It indicates that storm systems across the central Mediterranean will be less frequent than in a typical year. One or two stormy episodes and one or two misses, may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above or below average respectively. Whether or not it ends up being average or wetter than average depends on whether storm systems that form around us end up affecting land or not.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR MAR-APR-MAY 2022 – Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR MAR-APR-MAY 2022 – Drier than Average*

* A ‘Drier than Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards quieter than normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. Whether or not a month ends up being drier or wetter than average will depend on whether any rain-producing systems that form affect land or not. This is because one or two stormy episodes may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above average. Conversely, one or two near misses may leave the Maltese Islands land area dry, pushing values to below average.

According to climate data, the mean temperature in January is of 12.7°C (a 15.6°C high and a 9.8°C low). Total precipitation in a typical January amounts to 94.1 mm. Climatically, it is the second wettest month of the year. January, being the second month of the meteorological winter, brings us closer to the coldest part of the year. A typical January would be characterized by one or two cold snaps. Spells of warmer weather in between is not unusual. The bulk of the rain that falls in January is often the product of a weather pattern referred to locally as ‘Pruvenz’. This refers to a series of days characterized by cool to cold westerly currents and brief but intense showers that may be accompanied by hail and a rumble or two of thunder. With this weather, the rain does not come in downpours but at a rate that allows the soil to soak in the water more efficiently without unnecessary damage. Some frontal systems also bring the occasional episode of continuous light to moderate rainfall with the potential of producing significant rainfall amounts. Northwesterly gales are common during January.

The majority of long-term weather models expect January 2022 to bring temperatures which are around the norm. The first week of the month will be much warmer, however. A cold snap could occur halfway through the month. Although episodes of strong wind will be guaranteed, these should not be more than what we normally experience. The same models expect January 2022 to be at least slightly drier than average. This outlook is to be taken only as indicative. It indicates that storm systems across the central Mediterranean will be less frequent than in a typical year. One or two stormy episodes and one or two misses, may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above or below average respectively. Whether or not it ends up being average or wetter than average depends on whether storm systems that form around us end up affecting land or not.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR FEB-MAR-APR 2022 – Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR FEB-MAR-APR 2022 – Drier than Average*

* A ‘Drier than Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards quieter than normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. Whether or not a month ends up being drier or wetter than average will depend on whether any rain-producing systems that form affect land or not. This is because one or two stormy episodes may easily produce plentiful precipitation, pushing values to above average. Conversely, one or two near misses may leave the Maltese Islands land area dry, pushing values to below average.