Updates

The weather is expected to undergo three major changes in the coming days.

• Saturday 29/02 to Monday 02/03: A mass of very warm air from over north Africa is set to engulf the central Mediterranean. This will bring warm daytime highs of up to 22 C and mild nighttime lows of around 13 C. The wind will light to moderate from the South. The sky will be mainly sunny but hazy due to airborne fine desert sand.
• Tuesday 03/03 and Wednesday 04/03: A cold front associated with a low pressure system over northern Italy will bring the first rain in 50 days to the Maltese Islands. The warm air locally will clash with the colder air in the front, leading to the development of an area of showers. These showers may be heavy and thundery at times. Temperatures will dip to 15 C / 16 C highs and 10 C / 11 C lows on these two days. The wind will turn West to Northwest and blow very strongly on both days.
• Thursday 05/03 onward: The rain over the previous two days will be a one-off event. High pressure will once again take over the western Mediterranean on Thursday 05/03, marking the start of another potentially long period of dry weather.

It-temp mistenni jgħaddi minn tlett taqlibiet kbar fil-jiem li ġejjin.

• Is-Sibt 29/02 sat-Tnejn 02/03: Massa ta’ arja sħuna minn fuq l-Afrika se tgħatti iċ-ċentru tal-Mediterran. Din se ġġib magħha temperaturi massimi sħan sa 22 C u temperaturi minimi ħfaf ta’ madwar 13 C. Ir-riħ ikun ħafif għal moderat minn Nofsinhar. Is-sema se jkun il-biċċa l-kbira xemxi, imma xi ftit imdaħħan minħabba r-ramel fin fl-arja.
• It-Tlieta 03/03 u l-Erbgħa 04/03: Front kiesaħ abbinat ma’ sistema ta’ pressjoni baxxa fuq it-tramuntana ta’ l-Italja se ġġib l-ewwel xita f’50 jum lill-Gżejjer Maltin. L-arja sħuna lokali se taħbat ma’ l-arja friska li se jġib il-front, u twassal għal iżvilupp ta’ massa ta’ ħalbiet tax-xita. Teżisti l-possibilita li dawn il-ħalbiet tax-xita jistgħu jkunu qawwijin u bir-ragħad għal ftit ħin. It-temperaturi se jonqsu għal ogħla ta’ 15 C / 16 C u l-anqas ta’ 10 C / 11 C matul dawn il-jumejn. Ir-riħ idur Punent għal Majjistral u jkun qawwi ħafna matul il-jumejn li huma.
• Il-Ħamis 05/03 ‘il quddiem: Ix-xita matul il-jumejn ta’ qabel se tkun avveniment rari. Pressjoni għolja se terġa tieħu kontroll tal-punent tal-Mediterran mill-Ħamis 05/03, u b’hekk timmarka l-bidu ta’ perjodu ġdid ta’ nixfa li jista jdum ħafna.

Seasonal outlook maps have provided us with the very first indications for the months of March, April and May. In simple terms, it appears that the next three months will show a tendency towards being warmer than average with average or slightly below average precipitation. So far this winter, extended cold snaps were absent. The next three months are expected to maintain that. The chances of winter coming late can be ruled out, as temperatures will rise gradually over the next three months, and keep above average as they do so. Anticyclones to our west will persist, but will be slightly weaker. It may make it easier for areas of instability developing over the Atlantic to occasionally penetrate our region. This instability, coupled with the rising temperatures, may help produce a few showers from time to time. Whether or not these affect us will ultimately determine whether the overall precipitation is at or slightly below the average. Having said that, spring is what it is. The weather naturally starts turning drier, and spells of bright sunshine become longer. Consequently, regaining the precious rainfall we’ve lost this winter is unlikely.

Il-mapep staġġjonali qed jipprovduna bl-ewwel indikazzjonijiet għax xhur ta’ Marzu, April u Mejju. Fi ftit kliem, jidher li t-tlett xhur li ġejjin mistennija jkunu aktar sħan minn normal b’xita daqs jew ftit anqas mill-medja. Ma rajna l-ebda perjodu twil ta’ kesħa sa issa tul din ix-xitwa. Din se tkompli matul dawn it-tlett xhur. Iċ-ċans li jkollna xitwa tard jista jintesa, hekk kif it-temperatura se tibda tielgħa bilmod matul dawn it-tlett xhur, u żżomm dejjem ogħla mill-medja. L-antiċiklun lejn il-punent tagħna għandu jippersisti, għalkemm se jidgħajjef xi ftit. Dan jista jagħmilha aktar possibli li nstabbilta’ li tinħoloq fuq l-Atlantiku xi kultant żmien tippenetra r-reġjun tagħna. Din l-instabilta’ abbinata ma’ arja aktar sħuna, tista twassal għal xi ftit ħalbiet tax-xita minn żmien għal ieħor. Fl-aħħar minn l-aħħar, tagħmilx xita daqs il-medja jew le, jiddependi fuq jekk din ix-xita taħkimnix jew le. Minkejja dan, aħna rridu nifhmu li r-rebbiegħa hija li hi. It-temp jidba jibnazza. Konsegwenza ta’ dan, li nieħdu ix-xita kollha liu tlifna lura hija diffiċli.

We’re in for the sixth consecutive completely dry week. Most days will be characterised by high pressure covering the western Mediterranean. The drought that has gripped the Maltese Islands all winter will go on uninterrupted. A dry week will confirm February 2020 as the driest ever for the Maltese Islands. All days this week shall continue to enjoy mainly sunny or partly cloudy skies. With the exception of Thursday 27/02, temperatures will be largely warm. The daytime highs will range from 16 C to 20 C, while nighttime lows will be at 11 C / 12 C. Thursday 27/02 will be cooler, with a 14 C high and 9 C low. The wind will be stronger than of late too. A West to Northwest wind will dominate in the coming days. Monday 24/02 and Thursday 27/02 will be the windiest.

Latest long-term maps have confirmed a grim outlook for the Maltese Islands. The drought will extend into March. The maps explain how persistent high pressure will continue to cover the Mediterranean, preventing low pressure systems originating over the Atlantic from reaching us. The chance of any rain before the end of February is zero. It is also likely that no rain will reach us in the first week of March. The second week of March may also be mainly dry. This is as far as long-term maps go. We will update you regularly on the drought situation.

Statistics from our weather station in Għarb reveal some dismal facts.

• July 2019 (1.3 mm) was wetter than February 2020 (0.5 mm)
• February 2020 will become the driest February ever
• It will soon be 3 months since the last nationwide rain
• It will soon be over a month since the last decent shower (>1 mm)

These facts will be confirmed assuming no rain falls over the Maltese Islands by 29th February 2020.

L-aħħar mapep fit-tul qed jikkonfermaw sitwazzjoni mhux daqstant pjaċevoli għal Gżejjer Maltin. In-nixfa se tkompli f’Marzu. Il-mapep spjegaw kif pressjoni għolja persistenti se tkompli tgħatti ċ-ċentru tal-Mediterran, u b’hekk iżżommu sistemi ta’ pressjoni baxxa li joriġinaw barra fuq l-Atlantiku minn li jilħquna. Iċ-ċans ta’ xita sa l-aħħar ta’ Frar huwa żero. Huwa probabli wkoll li l-ebda xita ma tilħaqna matul l-ewwel ġimgħa ta’ Marzu. It-tieni ġimgħa ta’ Marzu taf tkun waħda niexfa ferm wkoll. Il-mapep fit-tul sa hawn iwasslu. Aħna se naġġornawkom fuq is-sitwazzjoni tan-nixfa b’mod regolari.

Statistiċi minn l-istazzjoni metejoroloġiku tagħna fl-Għarb juri xi fatti mhux daqstant sbieħ.

• Lulju 2019 (1.3 mm) ra aktar xita minn Frar 2020 (0.5 mm)
• Frar 2020 se jikser ir-rekord ta’ l-aktar Frar niexef fl-istorja ta’ Malta
• Dalwaqt ikun ilu tlett xhur minn l-aħħar xita mifruxa mal-pajjiż kollu
• Dalwaqt ikun ilu xahar minn l-aħħar ħalba xita diċenti (>1 mm)

Dawn il-fatti se jkunu konfermati jekk ma tagħmilx xita madwar il-Gżejjer Maltin sa 29 ta’ Frar 2020.

It’s confirmed! The long stretch of dry weather is expected to last over Carnival and beyond. This comes as latest maps continue to show an area of high pressure covering the central Mediterranean over the weekend. This will ensure a mix of clouds and sun on all five days. Temperatures will be stable on these days, with 16 C / 17 C highs and 10 C / 11 C lows. Wind will be light and variable on Friday 21/02 and Saturday 22/02. It will then be light to moderate from a predominantly West direction on all remaining days.

Konferma! Il-perjodu twil ta’ nixfa mistenni li jkompli fil-jiem tal-Karnival u anke wara. Dan wara li l-aħħar mapep baqgħu juru roqgħa ta’ pressjoni għolja li se tgħatti iċ-ċentru tal-Mediterran fi tmiem il-ġimgħa. Din se tkun qed tiżgura taħlita ta’ xemx u sħab matul il-ħamest ijiem li huma. It-temperaturi se jkunu stabbli matul dawn il-jiem, bl-ogħla ta’ 16 C / 17 C u l-anqas ta’ 10 C / 11 C. Ir-riħ se jkun ħafif u varjabbli l-Ġimgħa 21/02 u s-Sibt 22/02. Dan isir ħafif għal moderat mill-Punent għal bqija tal-jiem.

It’s more of the same for the Maltese Islands this week. High pressure to our west, and later on right above us, will ensure another week drenched in plentiful bright sunshine. The drought that has gripped the Maltese Islands this winter will continue uninterrupted. There is no end in sight for the dry weather. All days this week will enjoy mainly sunny or partly cloudy skies. No rain will affect us this week. 15 C / 16 C highs and 9 C / 10 C lows will characterise all of this week. The wind will be light on all days, with the exception of Wednesday 19/02 and Thursday 20/02, when the Northwest wind will reach strong speeds at times. Since most nights will be calm, heavy dewfall is once again a certainty. Events planned for Carnival will be able to go ahead as planned. The chance of light rain that was a threat for the weekend is now almost negligible.

The question on most Carnival enthusiasts’ mouths is: “Will it rain for Carnival?” As the Carnival weekend draws closer, the weather maps become more reliable, and we become more confident in our forecasts. What we can confirm is that a low pressure system will develop over the Gulf of Genoa on Thursday 20/02. This should migrate southeastwards, reaching the eastern Mediterranean by Sunday 23/02. High pressure should develop over the central Mediterranean in the evening on Sunday 23/02, and last beyond Tuesday 25/02.

The only chance of rain during Carnival is from Friday 21/02 through to Sunday 23/02. It should be completely dry on Monday 24/02 and Tuesday 25/02. The chance of rain depends on whether the low pressure system takes the southern route (over the central Mediterranean) or the northern route (over the Adriatic). With the former, the risk of rain would be higher. Conversely, the latter would present a smaller chance of rain. As things stand, we expect little to no rain. Any rain would be light and in very brief and localised episodes.

So far, there is no cause for alarm amongst Carnival enthusiasts and revellers. We will issue a confirmed update by midweek.

Il-mistoqsija fuq fomm id-dilettanti tal-karnival kollha hija: “Se tagħmel xita fil-karnival?” Hekk kif il-Karnival qed kull ma jmur joqrob, il-mapep tat-temp isiru aktar żguri, u aħna nsiru aktar kunfidenti fi tbassir. Sa issa, ninsabu ċerti li sistema ta’ pressjoni baxxa se tiżviluppa fuq il-Golf ta’ Genoa il-Ħamis 20/02. Din mistennija li tersaq lejn ix-xlokk, u tilħaq il-lvant tal-Mediterran sal-Ħadd 23/02. Arja bi pressjoni għolja mistennija tiżviluppa fuq iċ-ċentru tal-Mediterran il-Ħadd 23/02 filgħodu, u tippersisti sa wara t-Tlieta 25/02.

L-uniku ċans ta’ xita matul il-Karnival huwa mill-Ġimgħa 21/02 sal-Ħadd 23/02. Għandu jkun niexef kumpletament it-Tnejn 24/02 u t-Tlieta 25/02. Iċ-ċans ta’ xita jiddependi fuq jekk is-sistema ta’ pressjoni baxxa tieħux ir-rotta ta’ isfel (minn fuq iċ-ċentru tal-Mediterran) jew ir-rotta ta’ fuq (minn fuq l-Adrijatiku). B’din ta’ l-ewwel, iċ-ċans ta’ xita jkun ogħla. B’dik ta’ l-aħħar, iċ-ċans ta’ xita jkun iżgħar. Kif jidhru l-affarijiet sa issa, aħna qednistennew ftit li xejn xita. Jekk tagħmel xi xita, din tkun ħafifa u f’ħalbiet qosra ħafna u lokaliżżati.

Sa issa, jidher li d-dilettanti tal-karnival u dawk kollha li jieħdu gost jiċċelebrawh ma għandhomx jallarmaw ruħhom. Aħna se noħorġu aġġornament konfermat sa nofs il-ġimgħa.

The Maltese Islands have been in the grip of a drought since the beginning of December 2019. For 10 weeks, the Maltese Islands have experienced drier-than-average weather, with only a few localised rainfall events. A total of 44.0 mm were measured by our weather station in Għarb since 1st December 2019. That makes up just 7% of the total precipitation we normally receive during this time. The last time we had nationwide significant rainfall was back on 25th November 2019. This is the result of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this state, high pressure to our west is stronger than normal. Simultaneously, low pressure over Iceland is also stronger than the norm. This setting prevents low pressure systems forming over the Atlantic from reaching the Mediterranean and southern Europe, as they are deviated to the north. As a result, the Maltese Islands are experiencing a drier winter. The situation may change in the coming days, as the positive NAO is showing signs of weakening. More details will be issued when available.

Il-Gżejjer Maltin ilhom maqbudin minn nixfa kbira sa mill-bidu ta’ Diċembru 2019. Għal 10 ġimgħat, esperjenzajna temp aktar niexef minn normal, bi ftit xita lokaliżżata biss. Total ta’ 44.0 mm ġew imkejjla minn l-istazzjon tat-temp tagħna ġewwa l-Għarb sa minn l-1 ta’ Diċembru 2019. Dak ifisser li ħadna biss 7% ta’ dak li normalment nieħdu tul dan iż-żmien. L-aħħar darba li għamlet xita sinifikanti mifruza mal-pajjiż kollu kien fil-25 ta’ Novembru 2019. Dan huwa r-riżultat ta’ North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pożittiva. Fl-istat pożittiv tagħha, ir-roqgħa ta’ pressjoni għolja lejn il-punent tagħna tkun aktar b’saħħitha minn normal. Fl-istess waqt, il-pressjoni baxxa fuq l-Iżlanda tkun aktar qawwija minn normal. Din is-sitwazzjoni metejoroloġika żżomm sistemi ta’ pressjoni baxxa li jiffurmaw barra fuq l-Atlantiku minn li jilħqu il-Mediterran u n-nofsinhar ta’ l-Ewropa, hekk kif dawn ikunu mbuttati ‘l fuq. Ir-riżultat ta’ dan hija xitwa niexfa għal Gżejjer Maltin. Is-sitwazzjoni tista tinbidel, hekk kif l-NAO pożittiva qed turu sinjali żgħar ta’ dgħjufija. Aktar dettalji jinħarġu meta jkunu għandna.

It’s still early days, but weather maps are providing us with a preliminary outlook of the weather over Carnival weekend. The meteorological situation across the Mediterranean is shaping up to be a rather interesting one. There will be a low pressure system over the eastern Mediterranean, and an area of high pressure over the western Mediterranean. The Maltese Islands should find themselves sandwiched in between these. The influence of the high pressure should maintain mainly fine weather across Malta and Gozo. The wind should be mainly light to moderate. The low pressure will direct a stream of colder air towards the central Mediterranean, resulting in a potential cold spell over Carnival. There is a slight risk of a little light rain or drizzle, however, if the low pressure system’s edges extend westward enough to brush past the Maltese Islands. We will inform you more in due course.

Għadu kmieni, pero’ il-mapep tat-temp diġa bdew jagħtuna xi tbassir preliminari għal jiem tal-Karnival. Jidher li s-sitwazzjoni metejoroloġika se tkun waħda interessanti. Se jkun hemm sistema’ ta’ pressjoni baxxa fuq il-lvant tal-Mediterran, u arja bi pressjoni għolja fuq il-punent tal-Mediterran. Il-Gżejjer Maltin se jkunu bejniethom. Il-pressjoni għolja għandha twassal biex it-temp stabbli li għandna jitkompla. Ir-riħ għandu jkun ħafif għal moderat. Il-pressjoni baxxa minn naħa l-oħra, se tniżżel magħha massa ta’ arja kiesħa, li tista twassal għal perjodu ta’ kesħa tul żmien il-Karnival. Jeżisti wkoll ir-riskju żgħir ta’ xi ftit xita ħafifa jew irxiex, pero’, jekk tarf din is-sistema’ ta’ pressjoni baxxa jestendi lejn il-punent biżejjed u jgħaddi bi żbrixx minn magħna. Aħna se nżommukom infurmati tul il-jiem li ġejjin.

Another week under the influence of high pressure lies ahead for the Maltese Islands. There is no end in sight to the unprecedented drought that has gripped the Maltese Islands this winter. We’re expecting a mainly sunny or partly cloudy sky on all days except for Thursday 13/02, when clouds could obscure the bright sunshine. No rain will affect us this week. It’s been three months since the last time we had nationwide rainfall. After a brief cold spell, we’ll be seeing the return of typical springtime temperatures. 17 C / 18 C highs and 12 C / 13 C will dominate throughout the week. A brisk Westerly wind will be present on most days this week. It will reach Force 5/6 at times.