The question on most Carnival enthusiasts’ mouths is: “Will it rain for Carnival?” As the Carnival weekend draws closer, the weather maps become more reliable, and we become more confident in our forecasts. What we can confirm is that a low pressure system will develop over the Gulf of Genoa on Thursday 20/02. This should migrate southeastwards, reaching the eastern Mediterranean by Sunday 23/02. High pressure should develop over the central Mediterranean in the evening on Sunday 23/02, and last beyond Tuesday 25/02.

The only chance of rain during Carnival is from Friday 21/02 through to Sunday 23/02. It should be completely dry on Monday 24/02 and Tuesday 25/02. The chance of rain depends on whether the low pressure system takes the southern route (over the central Mediterranean) or the northern route (over the Adriatic). With the former, the risk of rain would be higher. Conversely, the latter would present a smaller chance of rain. As things stand, we expect little to no rain. Any rain would be light and in very brief and localised episodes.

So far, there is no cause for alarm amongst Carnival enthusiasts and revellers. We will issue a confirmed update by midweek.

Il-mistoqsija fuq fomm id-dilettanti tal-karnival kollha hija: “Se tagħmel xita fil-karnival?” Hekk kif il-Karnival qed kull ma jmur joqrob, il-mapep tat-temp isiru aktar żguri, u aħna nsiru aktar kunfidenti fi tbassir. Sa issa, ninsabu ċerti li sistema ta’ pressjoni baxxa se tiżviluppa fuq il-Golf ta’ Genoa il-Ħamis 20/02. Din mistennija li tersaq lejn ix-xlokk, u tilħaq il-lvant tal-Mediterran sal-Ħadd 23/02. Arja bi pressjoni għolja mistennija tiżviluppa fuq iċ-ċentru tal-Mediterran il-Ħadd 23/02 filgħodu, u tippersisti sa wara t-Tlieta 25/02.

L-uniku ċans ta’ xita matul il-Karnival huwa mill-Ġimgħa 21/02 sal-Ħadd 23/02. Għandu jkun niexef kumpletament it-Tnejn 24/02 u t-Tlieta 25/02. Iċ-ċans ta’ xita jiddependi fuq jekk is-sistema ta’ pressjoni baxxa tieħux ir-rotta ta’ isfel (minn fuq iċ-ċentru tal-Mediterran) jew ir-rotta ta’ fuq (minn fuq l-Adrijatiku). B’din ta’ l-ewwel, iċ-ċans ta’ xita jkun ogħla. B’dik ta’ l-aħħar, iċ-ċans ta’ xita jkun iżgħar. Kif jidhru l-affarijiet sa issa, aħna qednistennew ftit li xejn xita. Jekk tagħmel xi xita, din tkun ħafifa u f’ħalbiet qosra ħafna u lokaliżżati.

Sa issa, jidher li d-dilettanti tal-karnival u dawk kollha li jieħdu gost jiċċelebrawh ma għandhomx jallarmaw ruħhom. Aħna se noħorġu aġġornament konfermat sa nofs il-ġimgħa.